088 
 WTPA41 PHFO 241514
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015
  
 THE CENTER OF KILO APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN
 ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BASED ON AMSU-B PASSES AT 0802 UTC AND 0847
 UTC...AS WELL AS AN 0848 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INCLUDED
 SOME UNCONTAMINATED 30 KT BARBS. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING
 KILO AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA
 ALSO CONFIRMS WHAT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS...THAT KILO
 CONTINUES TO BE A MESSY SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION THAT
 STRETCHES ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6. KILO IS TRACKING AROUND THE
 SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THE ANTICYCLONE IS
 EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND KILO WILL BE LEFT IN A LARGE AREA OF WEAK
 STEERING CURRENTS AT DAYS 2 AND 3. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...DEEP LAYER
 RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF KILO...FORCING
 THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SIMPLY
 AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
 MORE OF A WESTWARD TURN AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES TO BE MORE IN
 LINE WITH THE TRENDS OF BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS
 GUIDANCE. 
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. ALTHOUGH KILO IS
 OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C...IT APPEARS THE
 DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED WIND FIELD AROUND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE
 HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. THE CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES
 THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING 10 TO 15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
 SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
 HOURS...SO IF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CAN BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL
 THEN STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS KILO GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWARD
 AND SLOWS DOWN. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE INTENSIFICATION TREND MAY BE
 ARRESTED AS KILO BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. 
 LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS IN 
 GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT REMAINS WELL 
 BELOW THE CONSENSUS...HWRF...AND GFDL. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/1500Z 15.6N 167.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 16.2N 168.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/1200Z 17.1N 168.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  26/0000Z 18.0N 168.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  26/1200Z 18.6N 168.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  27/1200Z 19.0N 169.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  28/1200Z 19.3N 170.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  29/1200Z 19.7N 171.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER R BALLARD