644 
 WTPA41 PHFO 102037
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
 1100 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008
 
 CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
 KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS RATHER RAGGED. THE 1800 UTC 
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.0. A RECENT 
 SCATTEROMETER PASS HAD SOME 40 TO 45 KT RAIN FLAGGED WIND BARBS IN 
 THE NORTH QUADRANT OF KIKA BUT WAS VOID OF ANY WEST WINDS IN THE 
 SOUTH QUADRANT. HOWEVER A RECENT WINDSAT PASS DID SHOW SOME WEST 
 WINDS IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN 
 QUADRANT. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT 
 THAT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.
 
 AFTER A BIT OF A JOG TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THE PRESENT MOTION 
 APPEARS TO BE 280 DEGREES AT AROUND 14 KT. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS 
 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PRETTY 
 MUCH GOES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY 
 FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO 
 THE NORTH OF KIKA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
 PACKAGE. 
 
 ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA 
 HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TO BETWEEN 6 AND 7 KNOTS FROM 
 THE WEST NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING 
 OVER THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN AREA OF 
 WARMER WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE SLIGHT 
 INCREASE IN SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...KIKA IS EXPECTED TO 
 REMAIN AT A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SOME 
 MINOR INTENSITY CHANGES MAY OCCUR BOTH UP AND DOWN DURING THIS 
 PERIOD. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND 
 KIKA RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS IS OR WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. 
 THIS IS IN CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE SHIPS 
 MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY KIKA TO 50 KNOTS IN 72 
 HOURS AND UP TO 60 KNOTS BY 120 HOURS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/2100Z  9.8N 163.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     11/0600Z 10.1N 165.1W    35 KT
  24HR VT     11/1800Z 10.5N 167.9W    35 KT
  36HR VT     12/0600Z 11.0N 170.7W    40 KT
  48HR VT     12/1800Z 11.5N 173.5W    40 KT
  72HR VT     13/1800Z 12.5N 179.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     14/1800Z 13.3N 175.7E    35 KT
 120HR VT     15/1800Z 13.7N 171.3E    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE