988 
 WTNT45 KNHC 050231
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
 STAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
 DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE
 STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE
 REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS
 BRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
 IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT
 THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS
 OVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.
  
 THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/0300Z 17.3N  96.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N  97.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N  97.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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