698 
 WTNT43 KNHC 211447
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
  
 THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF RITA UNTIL LATER
 THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
 PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE
 SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED
 UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM
 BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR
 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I
 WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS
 FURTHER...IF NECESSARY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
 STRENGTHENING AND RITA...AS KATRINA DID...WILL BE CROSSING THE LOOP
 CURRENT OR AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
 SO. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THEREAFTER...THE
 INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY CHANGES IN THE EYEWALL WHICH ARE
 DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
 MEXICO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IN THE AREA OF THE LOOP CURRENT SO
 SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED....BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
 LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.   
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. RITA IS MOVING
 WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH.  AS THE HIGH MOVES
 EASTWARD...RITA WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
 NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BASICALLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT
 CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND.
 THEREFORE THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINLY. ON
 THIS TRACK AND DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA...A
 HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
 TONIGHT.  
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/1500Z 24.3N  85.9W   120 KT
  12HR VT     22/0000Z 24.5N  87.9W   135 KT
  24HR VT     22/1200Z 25.0N  90.0W   130 KT
  36HR VT     23/0000Z 25.7N  92.0W   125 KT
  48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.6N  94.0W   120 KT
  72HR VT     24/1200Z 29.0N  96.5W   100 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     25/1200Z 32.5N  97.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     26/1200Z 35.5N  97.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  
  
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