921 
 WTNT44 KNHC 020252
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016
 
 Recent satellite images suggest that the structure of Matthew has
 changed little, and the winds are still estimated at 130 kt. The
 hurricane should experience some weakening during the next couple of
 days, but Matthew is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane until
 it interacts with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba in
 about 48 hours or so. Once Matthew reaches the Bahamas, the
 upper-level environment and warm waters will favor some
 restrengthening. In the mean time, some short-term fluctuations in
 intensity are possible due to internal dynamics, including eyewall
 replacement cycles, that are not included here. A better estimate
 of the intensity can be obtained when the next Air Force plane
 reaches Matthew at about 1130 UTC Sunday.
 
 A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the
 eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the
 hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6
 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and the motion of the
 hurricane for the next 2 to 3 days remains controlled by a
 mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-level
 trough in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern
 Caribbean Sea. This flow pattern will steer Matthew toward the
 north-northwest and north toward western Haiti, eastern Cuba,
 and Jamaica during the next day or so. This portion of the NHC
 forecast track was shifted eastward following the trend of the
 overall guidance, primarily the multi-model consensus. Beyond 72
 hours, given the large spread of the guidance, the confidence in the
 track is low.
 
 It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
 errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
 Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
 from Matthew in Florida.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0300Z 13.8N  73.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 14.2N  73.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 15.3N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 16.7N  74.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 18.3N  74.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  74.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  06/0000Z 25.0N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 120H  07/0000Z 27.5N  75.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila