016 
 WTNT44 KNHC 060902
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004
  
 FINAL T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS
 WEAKENED A BIT OVERNIGHT. LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS
 BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT
 FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST...275/20. THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST
 MODELS SUGGEST A VERY SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96
 HOURS.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO
 THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE STEERING IVAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
 SEA BY DAY TWO AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA ON
 DAY FOUR. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY FIVE WITH NOGAPS
 TO THE RIGHT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET TO THE LEFT OF THE
 AIDS ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUNS AND
 GUNA.
  
 IVAN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REACHING
 130 KT IN 48 HOURS...THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GFDL AND
 SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 LIES AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. INTERACTION OF IVAN WITH HISPANIOLA
 WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM...JUST HOW MUCH
 REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A BRIEF EVALUATION OF CLIMATOLOGY LOOKING FOR
 TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SIMILAR TRACKS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM S
 PASSING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER ENCOUNTER LIMITED DEGRADATION
 IN INTENSITY BEFORE EMERGING W OF THE ISLAND. BEARING THIS IN
 MIND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD A BIT HIGHER THAN SHIPS BUT
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFDL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0900Z 10.8N  51.6W   110 KT
  12HR VT     06/1800Z 11.6N  54.3W   115 KT
  24HR VT     07/0600Z 12.3N  57.5W   120 KT
  36HR VT     07/1800Z 13.2N  60.7W   125 KT
  48HR VT     08/0600Z 14.3N  63.5W   130 KT
  72HR VT     09/0600Z 16.8N  69.1W   130 KT
  96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W    80 KT
 120HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  77.0W    95 KT
  
  
 $$