279 
 WTNT22 KNHC 290300
 TCMAT2
 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
  
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
  
 THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
 WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...
 NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
  
 THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
 WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
  
 THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
 FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S.
 VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
  
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
 * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
 * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
 PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
 AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
 BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
 DANGEROUS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  55.4W AT 29/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  17 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
 50 KT....... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 34 KT.......140NE  80SE   0SW  90NW.
 12 FT SEAS..210NE  30SE  30SW 120NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  55.4W AT 29/0300Z
 AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  54.6W
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
 34 KT...140NE  80SE  20SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N  60.0W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  25NW.
 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 34 KT...140NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.1N  62.0W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 64 KT... 35NE  20SE  20SW  35NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  35SE  35SW  50NW.
 34 KT...140NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.0N  63.9W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 50 KT... 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
 34 KT...140NE 100SE  75SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N  68.0W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 50 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
 34 KT...140NE 100SE  75SW 120NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.0N  71.0W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N  72.5W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  55.4W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN