974 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 181451
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018
 
 Lane's inner-core convective organization has continued to improve
 with satellite intensity estimates vacillating between T6.0/115 kt
 and T6.5/127 kt during the past 6 hours. The 15-nmi-diameter eye
 remains quiet distinct and is embedded within a solid ring of cloud
 tops colder than -70 deg C. An average of the various intensity
 estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON support
 increasing the intensity to 120 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 285/13 kt. There has been little
 change in the models over the past couple of days, and the latest
 NHC guidance, especially the consensus track models, required no
 significant changes to the previous advisory track. The large
 expansive subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is
 forecast to remain intact and gradually build westward to the north
 of the Hawaiian Islands throughout the 120-h forecast period. As a
 result, Lane is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48
 hours or so, and then turn westward by day 3, maintaining that
 motion on days 4 and 5. The official forecast track lies close to a
 blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus models. On the forecast
 track, Hurricane Lane is expected to move into the Central Pacific
 basin in about 9 hours at around 0000 UTC.
 
 Although Lane will be remaining over 27.0-27.5 deg C SSTs during
 the forecast period, increasing westerly to northwesterly vertical
 wind shear to around 15 kt, along with a slightly drier mid-level
 environment, is expected to induce slow but steady weakening by 24
 hours. Although Lane could strengthen a little more before the
 prolonged weakening begins, the general intensity trend should be
 downward. However, the rate of weakening is held a little above the
 intensity guidance owing to the warmer SSTs indicated by raw data
 than what the SHIPS model guidance is using.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/1500Z 12.3N 138.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart