735 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 091437
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 800 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010
  
 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER
 AS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ESTELLE. THE MORNING
 VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOSTLY
 SURROUNDED BY STABLE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SATELLITE
 CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED
 TO 35 KT.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A DEPRESSION
 SOON AND A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE
 TO SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
 ESTELLE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE
 SOUTHWEST...SOUTH...AND EAST AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO STRONG
 LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN MERGE
 THE SYSTEM INTO A LARGER ITCZ LOW WITHIN A FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BIT SLOWER
 THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 17.7N 112.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N 112.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N 113.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.4N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 17.1N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE