526 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 130231
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
 
 Cristina has weakened during the last several hours.  The eye has
 lost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images.  In
 addition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the
 convection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to
 mid-level dry air and some westerly shear.  Dvorak intensity numbers
 from all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is
 lowered to 105 kt based on those estimates.  Cristina is expected to
 continue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment,
 including progressively colder waters during the next several days.
 The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account
 for the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the
 intensity model consensus IVCN.
 
 The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  A
 west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
 next couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over
 northern Mexico.  After that time, the weakening and shallower
 system should turn westward steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC
 track forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in
 the latest guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0300Z 17.3N 108.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi