797 
 WTNT44 KNHC 010855
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
 400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016
 
 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Hermine
 and measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt, but the SFMR winds
 are a little bit lower. These strong winds measured by the hurricane
 hunter plane are confined to the eastern half of the circulation. On
 this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The lowest
 pressure estimated from the plane was 996 mb. The NHC
 intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, and
 brings Hermine to hurricane strength near landfall. This forecast
 continues to be based primarily on the intensity consensus model
 IVCN. Once inland, Hermine should weaken, however, most of the
 global models expand the area of tropical storm force winds on the
 eastern semicircle, and so does the official forecast. By the end of
 the forecast period, most of the global models suggest
 strengthening, but by then Hermine is expected to be an
 extratropical cyclone located offshore the U.S. east coast.
 
 Hermine moved very little during the past couple of hours, but a
 recent fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicates that
 the cyclone has begun to move toward the north-northeast or 020
 degrees at 10 kt. Hermine is already located at the base of a
 mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern should steer the
 cyclone on a general north to northeast track with a slight
 increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast follows very closely
 the multi-model consensus TVCN, primarily during the first 2 to 3
 days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move little
 while it interacts with an upper-level trough as indicated by the
 GFS and the ECMWF global models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 26.4N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 27.8N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 30.0N  84.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 32.0N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  48H  03/0600Z 34.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
  72H  04/0600Z 36.5N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  05/0600Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  06/0600Z 38.0N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila