217 
 WTNT43 KNHC 210843
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
  
 THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED
 DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT.  HOWEVER...BEFORE
 THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST
 WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT. 
 ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM ALL
 AGENCIES.  BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS FROM THE LAST
 AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105
 KT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  RITA SHOULD
 CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE
 SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
 COAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE
 RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD
 MOTION.  THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
 THIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS
 FORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM
 THEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
 CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY
 WESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN
 JUST OVER 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL.
  
 THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF RITA GIVES EVERY IMPRESSION THAT RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
 CHANNEL MENTIONED EARLIER IS NOT AS APPARENT NOW THE POLEWARD
 OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL GOING STRONG.  THUS INTENSIFICATION COULD
 CONTINUE UNTIL A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS OR UNTIL THE EYE
 MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HR.  THE GFDL MODEL
 PEAKS RITA AT ABOUT 120 KT IN 12-18 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS IT
 AT 122 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE PEAKS IT AT 131 KT IN 48
 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM TO 125 KT IN 24
 HR AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A
 SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR
 BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE
 LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT.  RITA SHOULD
 MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL...THEN WEAKEN AFTER
 LANDFALL.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      21/0900Z 24.3N  84.6W   105 KT
  12HR VT     21/1800Z 24.4N  86.5W   115 KT
  24HR VT     22/0600Z 24.7N  88.7W   125 KT
  36HR VT     22/1800Z 25.2N  90.8W   125 KT
  48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.9N  92.8W   125 KT
  72HR VT     24/0600Z 28.0N  95.5W   120 KT
  96HR VT     25/0600Z 31.5N  97.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 120HR VT     26/0600Z 35.5N  96.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
  
  
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