705 
 WTNT45 KNHC 181433
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013
 
 ERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP
 CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE
 CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER
 SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED...
 PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
 HOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
 PERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO
 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.  
 
 ERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
 EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE
 TRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD
 MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
 THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  18/1500Z 20.5N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 20.5N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  19/1200Z 20.5N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  20/0000Z 20.5N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/1200Z 20.5N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH