838
FONT13 KNHC 152040
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 177N 445W 34 96 1(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 177N 445W 50 51 17(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) 1(71) X(71)
12 177N 445W 64 24 12(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
24 186N 460W 34 40 44(84) 7(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 1(93)
24 186N 460W 50 3 43(46) 11(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60)
24 186N 460W 64 1 22(23) 9(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
36 195N 475W 34 4 37(41) 31(72) 9(81) 4(85) 1(86) X(86)
36 195N 475W 50 X 9( 9) 30(39) 9(48) 4(52) 2(54) X(54)
36 195N 475W 64 X 3( 3) 19(22) 7(29) 2(31) 2(33) X(33)
48 205N 490W 34 1 9(10) 31(41) 24(65) 10(75) 3(78) 1(79)
48 205N 490W 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 20(34) 10(44) 2(46) 1(47)
48 205N 490W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 7(26) X(26) 1(27)
72 220N 510W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 22(31) 25(56) 9(65) 1(66)
72 220N 510W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 6(35) 2(37)
72 220N 510W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 5(20) 1(21)
96 240N 540W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 21(42) 8(50)
96 240N 540W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 4(25)
96 240N 540W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
120 260N 565W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 11(35)
120 260N 565W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16)
120 260N 565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 75 85 95 100 95 90
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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