157 
 WTNT21 KNHC 010843
 TCMAT1
 
 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 NONE.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * CENTRAL BAHAMAS
 * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
 ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * BIMINI
 * ANDROS ISLAND
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 * ANDROS ISLAND
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
 PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
 BAHAMAS.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  73.7W AT 01/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
 64 KT....... 25NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT....... 40NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW  80NW.
 12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 100SW 180NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  73.7W AT 01/0900Z
 AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  73.5W
 
 FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N  74.2W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 64 KT... 35NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N  74.8W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N  74.8W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.8N  74.1W
 MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.5N  74.0W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 150NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 36.0N  74.5W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 39.0N  74.0W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  73.7W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN