839 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 180839
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018
 
 The satellite presentation of Lane has improved significantly during
 the past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep
 convection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and
 SAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial
 intensity has been increased to 115 kt.  The hurricane is moving
 within an environment of light shear, and this should allow some
 additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that
 time, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin
 perhaps to a modest increase in shear.  The NHC forecast does
 not weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance.
 
 Lane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at
 14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high.
 Since the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this
 general motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An
 expected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease
 in the hurricane's forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered
 during the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the
 forecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good,
 resulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the
 north and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely
 the multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are
 in the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to
 the previous NHC forecast
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 12.1N 137.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila