175 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 020838
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
  
 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0210Z CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND THAT THE 34-KT WINDS IN THIS SMALL CYCLONE
 EXTEND ONLY ABOUT 40 NM FROM THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION
 WAS PRESENT AT THAT TIME...BUT A BURST HAS SINCE RESUMED IN THE
 SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  KRISTY REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN.  THE INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 40 KT FOR NOW...BUT THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO
 STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO
 REDUCE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW IN LESS
 THAN 48 HOURS.
 
 KRISTY HAD BEEN LIMPING WESTWARD AT A COUPLE OF KNOTS...BUT DURING
 THE PAST FEW HOURS IT APPEARS TO HAVE PULLED UP STATIONARY. 
 STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AND OVERALL THE CYCLONE WILL
 PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FOR THOSE
 INTERESTED IN THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ANTICIPATE
 A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
 SO...SEEMINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE JOHN LOCATED ABOUT
 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST.  ONCE JOHN GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE...SOME
 LOW-LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY...AND
 MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW KRISTY AGAIN MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT THREE
 DAYS.  SINCE JOHN AND KRISTY WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ANY CLOSER
 TOGETHER THAN THEY ARE NOW...I AM UNCONVINCED THAT KRISTY WILL BE
 DRAWN AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.  HOWEVER...THE NEW
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SMALL U-TURN DURING THE NEXT 24
 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INSIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE
 EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL 72 HOUR POSITION IS
 COINCIDENTALLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GFDL...BUT WITHOUT THE
 BACK AND FORTH MOTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 19.0N 119.0W    40 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.9N 119.1W    30 KT
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 119.0W    25 KT
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.6N 118.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.5N 118.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB