023 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 010249
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
  
 SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
 AFTERNOON...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS REMAINED
 IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
 IN A LARGE CDO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND
 6.0 FROM SAB AND THE ADT HAS BEEN SHOWING T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 FOR THE
 LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
 APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA COULD HAVE REACHED
 CATEGORY 5 STATUS EARLIER TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD
 STEADY FOR 12 HOURS...AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED
 AS JIMENA WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE
 CYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED
 TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA
 PENINSULA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSUMES
 THAT JIMENA WILL STILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO
 THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. THE TRACK FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JIMENA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-
 TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
 IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING JIMENA TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
 AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND
 IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
 BEYOND THAT TIME...THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 IT IS NOW NECESSARY TO EXTEND HURRICANE WATCHES FARTHER NORTH ALONG
 BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
 WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
 ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT OR ON
 TUESDAY.
 
 INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT
 STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL
 HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
 REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE DANGEROUS
 IMPACTS WILL EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER REGARDLESS OF THE
 LANDFALL LOCATION.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 19.4N 109.6W   135 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 20.7N 110.4W   135 KT
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W   125 KT
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.5N 111.9W   110 KT
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 26.1N 112.4W    75 KT
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 28.2N 112.8W    50 KT...INLAND
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER
 120HR VT     06/0000Z 31.5N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN