272 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 250248
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016
 
 After the earlier burst of strong convection, thunderstorm activity
 in the inner-core region of Frank has deteriorated with cloud tops
 having warmed significantly since the previous advisory. Moreover, a
 2217Z AMSU microwave pass indicated that the eyewall convection had
 become fragmented. The initial intensity remains at 60 kt for this
 advisory, which is close to the average of the 0000Z subjective and
 objective satellite intensity estimates.
 
 Frank has continued to slow down and is now moving 275/04 kt. Frank
 has made a westerly jog for the past 12 h, possibly due to the sharp
 increases and decreases in the inner-core structure during that
 time. However, the consensus of the global and regional models calls
 for the cyclone to resume a west-northwestward motion by early
 Monday. That motion is forecast to throughout at least 72 h as Frank
 moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical
 ridge. By 96-120 h, the cyclone is forecast to weaken to shallow
 remnant low pressure system, which should then be steered more
 westward by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The official
 forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and follows
 the consensus track model TVCN.
 
 Although the intensity is forecast to remain steady for the next 24
 hours, Frank is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 26 deg C
 and in a low vertical wind shear environment during that time, which
 should provide the cyclone with the opportunity to mix out the
 inner-core dry air and still become a hurricane. By 36-48 h,
 however, Frank will be moving over sub-26 deg C water, which should
 start a slow but steady weakening trend, with the cyclone
 degenerating into a remnant low by day 4. The new NHC intensity
 forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and
 closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/0300Z 20.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  25/1200Z 20.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  26/0000Z 20.4N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  26/1200Z 20.7N 116.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  27/0000Z 21.1N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  28/0000Z 22.3N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  29/0000Z 23.0N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  30/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart