561 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 122037
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
 
 Cristina appeared to peak in intensity earlier this morning around
 1200 UTC.  Deep convection has become less symmetric since that
 time, and the eye is somewhat cloud filled in the latest visible
 images.  The initial intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this
 advisory, which is close to a blend of current intensity estimates
 from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT.
 
 Although a UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that about 10 kt of
 west-southwesterly shear is affecting Cristina, it is likely that
 internal dynamics within the core of the hurricane are also
 modulating the intensity.  Only gradual weakening is forecast
 during the next 24-36 hours since vertical wind shear is expected to
 remain light and the ocean is sufficiently warm.  After 48 hours,
 environmental conditions become more hostile, and quicker weakening
 is anticipated after that time.  Given the hurricane's current
 structure, the statistical models appear too sluggish in showing
 weakening in the short-term, and the NHC intensity forecast
 therefore shows faster weakening during the first 36 hours.
 
 The initial motion remains 295/7 kt with Cristina located to the
 south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.  The track models
 are tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, showing
 Cristina maintaining a northwestward to west-northwestward motion
 through the next 48 hours.  After that time, the weakening cyclone
 will be steered to the west by lower-level flow.  The updated NHC
 track forecast is moved a little north of the previous forecast
 during the first 48 hours in response to a general shift in the
 guidance envelope, but overall the change is quite negligible.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/2100Z 16.9N 107.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg