675 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 301443
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
 800 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006
  
 ALTHOUGH ALETTA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS NO
 APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
 SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
 THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE A SHADE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS
 JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALETTA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE CYCLONE AT
 30-35 KT...INDICATIVE OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...AND GLOBAL MODELS
 SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE ALETTA WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER...IT IS
 LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE STRONG
 SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY
 OF THE CIRCULATION.
  
 EVEN WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO 
 PINPOINT THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
 FADING FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THE
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED
 GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
 HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING ON TO A CENTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL.
  
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 16.0N 103.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W    30 KT
  24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W    25 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$