632 
 WTPA44 PHFO 020902
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015
 1100 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015
  
 THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BE
 RAGGED THIS EVENING. DESPITE ITS POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
 BASED SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE PASSES AVAILABLE ON THE FNMOC
 WEB SITE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A CLOSED
 EYEWALL. TWO EXAMPLES OF THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARE THE 0342Z
 WINDSAT PASS AND THE 0412Z SSMIS PASS. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM SAB...HFO AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.0/90 KT. AS A 
 RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES 
 AT 12 KT. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE REMAINS A DEEP RIDGE TO THE 
 NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A BREAK IN 
 THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF GUILLERMO...AND 
 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. 
 AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO 
 OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GUILLERMO SHIFTS ITS FORWARD 
 MOTION SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. 
 MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON RELIABLE DYNAMICAL 
 MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE MOST 
 RECENT TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO 
 THE LATEST TVCN FORECAST. NOTE THAT ON THIS LATEST TRACK...GUILLERMO 
 WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY 
 AND THURSDAY.
  
 SOME SLOW WEAKENING OF GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
 DAYS. AS GUILLERMO HEADS INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT...THE
 OUTFLOW SHOULD BECOME DISRUPTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND
 EVENTUALLY ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE...
 ESPECIALLY STARTING ON DAY THREE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE IVCN WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING AS COMPARED
 WITH SHIPS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...GUILLERMO WILL BE A WEAKENING
 TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
  
 IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
 TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANY
 TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING GUILLERMO. THE AVERAGE 96 HOUR FORECAST
 TRACK ERROR IS JUST OVER 200 STATUTE MILES...WHILE THE 120 HOUR
 FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 300 STATUTE MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
 DETERMINE WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
 EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT ALSO IMPORTANT TO
 NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
 WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
  
 THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FROM THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
 SQUADRON IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN A RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO
 GUILLERMO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL
 CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION AROUND GUILLERMO DURING ITS
 TRANSIT TO HAWAII ON SUNDAY.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 14.2N 142.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 14.8N 143.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 15.5N 145.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 16.2N 146.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 17.0N 148.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 18.6N 151.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  06/0600Z 20.5N 155.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  07/0600Z 22.4N 159.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON