208 
 WTPA41 PHFO 102054
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 1100 AM HST SUN JAN 10 2016
 
 PALI HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
 NORTHEAST OF A 350 MILE DIAMETER AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.
 AMSU IMAGERY AT 1441 UTC SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION UNDER THE
 NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 2.5/35 KT...WITH 2.0/30 KT FROM
 JTWC. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST 12
 HOURS I HAVE MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 45 KT.
 
 ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE
 POSITIONS SHOW PALI MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. PALI REMAINS IN
 AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE
 RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
 TROPICAL STORM CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24
 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER
 THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH
 SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER EAST THROUGH 48
 HOURS...THEN HAS PALI MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH
 SOUTHWEST. THESE CHANGES SHIFT THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE LATEST
 RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.
  
 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW
 INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
 MAINTAINING PALI AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN
 WEAKENING IT TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE
 EQUATOR.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/2100Z  7.8N 173.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z  7.9N 173.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z  7.8N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z  7.3N 172.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z  6.5N 172.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z  4.5N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  14/1800Z  3.0N 174.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  15/1800Z  1.5N 175.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON