561 
 WTPA41 PHFO 240315
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015
  
 THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KILO CONTINUES ITS ON AGAIN 
 OFF AGAIN CYCLE.  AFTER A DECENT BURST OF CONVECTION WHICH PEAKED 
 AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER SMALLER BURST JUST BEFORE 
 NOON...OVERALL CONVECTION HAS STEADILY DECREASED. THE LATEST DVORAK 
 SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 
 PACKAGE...HFO AND JTWC AT 2.0 AND SAB AT 2.5. THE INTENSITY OF KILO 
 WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT FROM 
 THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL NOT CONDUCT A MISSION 
 TONIGHT AND HAVE SWITCHED TO A ONCE PER DAY FLIGHTS. THE NEXT FLIGHT 
 IS SCHEDULED TO SUPPORT THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE TOMORROW.
  
 THERE HAVE BEEN NO MARKED CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
 SURROUNDING KILO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF HAWAII 
 IN ADDITION TO ANTICYCLONES AT 700 AND 500 MB OVER HAWAII. THIS 
 ARRANGEMENT HAS KEPT KILO MOVING EITHER DUE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. 
 THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL 
 ANTICYCLONES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD 
 ALLOW KILO TO START ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHICH WE HAVE BEEN 
 ANTICIPATING FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE 
 SHIFTED MARKEDLY TO THE LEFT OR WEST THIS TIME AROUND AND THE 
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL.  ANY EASTWARD 
 REGRESSION IN THE TRACK FORECAST WAS REMOVED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK 
 FORECAST REMAINS ON THE RIGHT OR EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE 
 ENVELOPE IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
  
 KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT 
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. KILO HAS 
 THUS FAR FOUGHT OFF ALL THREE. WITH NO EXPECTED CHANGES...THE 12 
 HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED TO KEEP KILO AT A TROPICAL 
 DEPRESSION IN LINE WITH THE GFS. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS 
 STILL EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED 
 FROM 24 HOURS AND THEREAFTER....WITH KILO STILL REACHING MINIMUM 
 HURRICANE STRENGTH AT DAY 3.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND SINCE
 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST. INTERESTS
 IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
 PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...SHOULD
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/0300Z 14.5N 166.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 15.0N 167.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 15.7N 167.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 16.4N 167.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  26/0000Z 17.3N 168.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  27/0000Z 18.2N 168.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  28/0000Z 19.2N 168.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  29/0000Z 20.4N 168.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER TANABE