698 
 WTNT45 KNHC 041438
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005
  
 ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE CENTER POSTITION IS UNCERTAIN...BASED ON
 CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 10Z...STAN SHOULD BE JUST
 INLAND OF THE COASTLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
 COULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER INLAND...BUT SINCE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW
 AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THE TERRAIN OF
 MEXICO...I PREFER TO STAY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION FOR THE
 SURFACE CENTER. CONTINUITY OF THIS TRACK...WITH A REDUCTION IN
 FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.
 
 THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA NEAR 10Z INDICATED AN INTENSITY OF 70
 KT.  WHILE THERE WAS A BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION SINCE
 THEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
 AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL ON THEIR LAST
 PAST.  BALANCING THESE FACTORS LEADS ME TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 70
 KT.  A RAPID DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
 MOVES INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.
 
 STAN POSES A VERY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT...AND LIFE-THREATENING
 FLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES ARE VERY LIKELY.
 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/1500Z 18.6N  95.1W    70 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N  95.7W    45 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N  96.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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