089 
 WTNT43 KNHC 102033
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018
 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
 
 Helene's cloud pattern continues to be well organized with a large
 eye of about 20 nm in diameter, surrounded by a ring of deep
 convection.  The cyclone's circulation is large with numerous
 cyclonically curved convective bands, and the outflow is fair in all
 quadrants. Dvorak classifications have not changed much, and support
 an initial intensity of 90 kt.
 
 Helene has the opportunity to strengthen some during the next 24
 hours or so, while the shear is low and the ocean is still
 relatively warm. After that time, both shear and SSTs will become
 less favorable and gradual weakening should then begin. The NHC
 intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows
 closely the intensity consensus aids.
 
 Helene is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt.
 Soon, the hurricane will encounter a mid-level trough which the most
 reliable global models are forming in the eastern Atlantic.
 This new flow pattern will force Helene to turn to the northwest
 and north ahead of the developing trough.  Track models are quite
 consistent with this solution and the the spread of the guidance
 envelope is small through the forecast period.  This increases the
 confidence in the Helene's northward turn, followed by recurvature
 over the eastern Atlantic.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 14.9N  31.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 15.5N  33.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 16.4N  35.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 17.5N  37.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 19.0N  38.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z 23.0N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  14/1800Z 28.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  15/1800Z 34.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila