669 
 WTNT42 KNHC 282042
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
 500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010
  
 THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
 SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE
 CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS
 CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND
 WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS
 THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE
 NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY
 OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG
 THE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A
 SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN
 INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
 
 EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
 WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
 APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
 TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 
 THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO
 THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY
 DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
 SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER
 THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
  
 A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND
 WILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE
 WIND RADII.
   
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/2100Z 16.5N  54.2W    50 KT
  12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N  57.0W    55 KT
  24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N  59.5W    65 KT
  36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.3N  61.8W    75 KT
  48HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N  63.5W    85 KT
  72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.0N  67.0W   100 KT
  96HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N  70.5W   100 KT
 120HR VT     02/1800Z 30.5N  72.5W   100 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA