429 
 WTNT44 KNHC 162031
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
  
 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
 AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
 FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
 85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
 EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
 SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
 TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
 ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
 ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
 VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
 THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
 INTENSE HURRICANE.
  
 DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
 AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.
 THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
 NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
 HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE.  TRACK MODELS
 ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE
 CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
  
 THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
 KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/2100Z 14.0N  56.5W    85 KT
  12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N  59.7W    90 KT
  24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N  63.5W    95 KT
  36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.0W   100 KT
  48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  70.5W   110 KT
  72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  78.0W   115 KT
  96HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  84.5W   120 KT
 120HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.5W    90 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE