180 
 FONT13 KNHC 151437
 PWSAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13           
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
 1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
 LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
 WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 166N  431W 34 91   3(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
  12 166N  431W 50 55  12(67)   X(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
  12 166N  431W 64  8   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)
  
  24 178N  450W 34 15  61(76)   6(82)   3(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)
  24 178N  450W 50  1  41(42)   9(51)   1(52)   1(53)   1(54)   X(54)
  24 178N  450W 64  X  13(13)   6(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
  
  36 187N  465W 34  3  32(35)  30(65)   9(74)   5(79)   X(79)   1(80)
  36 187N  465W 50  X   9( 9)  26(35)   7(42)   3(45)   1(46)   X(46)
  36 187N  465W 64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)
  
  48 195N  480W 34  X   8( 8)  29(37)  20(57)  11(68)   1(69)   1(70)
  48 195N  480W 50  X   1( 1)  13(14)  15(29)   9(38)   1(39)   1(40)
  48 195N  480W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   1(17)   1(18)
  
  
  72 215N  505W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)  30(49)   8(57)   2(59)
  72 215N  505W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   7(29)   1(30)
  72 215N  505W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   2(17)
  
  
  96 235N  530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)  18(39)   8(47)
  96 235N  530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   4(22)
  96 235N  530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
  
  
 120 260N  550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)  13(33)
 120 260N  550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)
 120 260N  550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     60     65      70      75      85      85      85
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER AVILA