313 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 051454
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014
 
 The cloud pattern continues to be fairly well organized with a large
 area of deep convection near the center and an eye feature noted in
 microwave data. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have
 changed little and still support an initial intensity of 80 kt.
 
 Norbert is moving over an area of above normal sea surface
 temperatures and within an environment of low shear, so there is no
 reason for the cyclone to change much in intensity today. After that
 time, the circulation will gradually begin to move over cooler
 waters and into a more stable environment, resulting in a gradual
 weakening. Norbert's slow motion over cold water parallel to the
 Baja California Peninsula will tend to limit the cyclone's impact
 north of the current warning area. The new NHC forecast is similar
 to the previous one and follows the intensity consensus ICON.
 
 Norbert has been wobbling during the past 12 to 24 hours, but the
 average motion is toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The
 cyclone is expected to continue on this general track around
 the mid-level ridge over Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days.
 Thereafter, the steering currents are forecast to weaken as a
 trough in the westerlies swings by to the north of Norbert. The
 cyclone should then slow down and begin to meander. There is high
 confidence in the first 3 days of the forecast since guidance is
 tightly clustered. After that time, there is less confidence due to
 the large spread in model tracks, but the general trend is either
 little motion or a slow turn toward the northeast. By then, Norbert
 is expected to be a weak tropical storm or a remnant low.
 
 Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
 advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
 northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
 result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
 areas during the next few days.  Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/1500Z 23.2N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  06/0000Z 24.1N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  06/1200Z 25.0N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  07/0000Z 25.8N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  07/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  08/1200Z 28.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  09/1200Z 29.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/1200Z 30.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila