856 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 020257
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
  
 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
 SMALL...INTERMITTENT...BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNDER INCREASING EAST TO
 SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF HURRICANE JOHN.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS OF 35 TO 45 KT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
 FURTHER AND DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
 DRYER AND STABLE AIR.   
  
 KRISTY IS DRIFTING WEST...WITHIN A WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
 STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
 LARGE SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO INFLUENCE A
 GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE
 NOGAPS CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN IMMEDIATE EASTWARD FUJIWARA CAPTURE
 AND ABSORPTION WITH JOHN.  THIS IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE FACT THAT
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONES DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SEEM TOO LARGE...AND
 FOR THE OBVIOUS REASON THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN DRIFTING GENERALLY
 WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...WITH A
 SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMMENCING IN 24
 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 19.0N 119.1W    40 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N 119.3W    30 KT
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W    25 KT
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 18.9N 120.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 18.8N 120.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.6N 120.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN