059 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 182032
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006
  
 AN EYE HAS PERIODICALLY BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH THE
 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
 MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT
 INTENSITY VALUES OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
 85 KT.  A 1446Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
 WINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 125 NM AT MOST IN THE NW QUADRANT AND TO 
 75 NM AT MOST IN THE SW QUADRANT...WHICH IS SMALLER THAN OUR
 PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.
 
 CURRENT MOTION OF HECTOR CONTINUES AT A HEADING OF 290 DEGREES AT
 ABOUT 12 KT.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
 SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME...IT
 SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT WILL TURN THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS. 
 THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
 OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE NOGAPS AND
 GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD ON TO TOO STRONG AND TOO LARGE A VORTEX
 FOR TOO LONG.
 
 HECTOR IS GOING TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR
 WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN ABOUT A DAY.
 HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS
 MODEL TOO HIGH DUE TO ADJACENT STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
 THE SYSTEM.  THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SUGGESTS
 VERTICAL SHEAR CLOSER TO 5 TO 10 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE THE FSU
 SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH
 THREE DAYS.  DISSIPATION IS DELAYED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE
 SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.7N 126.9W    85 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N 128.6W    80 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W    70 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N 131.9W    60 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 138.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA