266 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 090244
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010
  
 SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF
 ESTELLE.  BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.  AS ESTELLE CONTINUES
 WESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
 INCREASED STABILITY AND STRONGER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
 WINDS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
 HOURS...WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN
 EVEN MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING.
  
 THE 12-HR MOTION IS 270/4 AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BEGINS TO
 FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE
 EAST AND LOW-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
 CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
 DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/0300Z 17.8N 111.7W    40 KT
  12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W    30 KT
  36HR VT     10/1200Z 17.7N 114.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN