168 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 121441
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
 
 Cristina has gone through an extraordinary, but not unprecedented,
 phase of rapid intensification during the past 24 hours, with its
 maximum winds increasing by about 65 kt since this time yesterday.
 The hurricane has a circular central dense overcast with very cold
 cloud tops to near -80C.  Water vapor images indicate that
 upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted in the southwestern
 quadrant but is good elsewhere.  Cristina has strengthened so fast
 that TAFB and SAB satellite estimates are limited to T6.0/115 kt by
 Dvorak rules.  The initial intensity is set at 130 kt, a little
 below the latest objective ADT estimate of T6.8/135 kt.
 
 The intensity trend appears to have leveled off a bit, and no
 further significant strengthening is expected.  However, light
 vertical wind shear and a deep warm ocean should allow Cristina to
 maintain major hurricane strength for another 36 hours or so.
 After that time, gradually increasing vertical shear and cooler sea
 surface temperatures should induce significant weakening after
 about 48 hours.  The official intensity forecast is fairly close to
 the consensus ICON and is similar to that of the special advisory.
 
 Cristina is located to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over
 northern Mexico, and the initial motion remains 295/7 kt.  The
 cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to
 northwestward heading during the next 4 days due to the ridge, and
 the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario.
 The GFDL model is the primary outlier, taking Cristina farther north
 after 48 hours.  The official forecast sticks with the rest of the
 guidance, however, and is relatively unchanged from the previous
 advisory.
 
 With Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, this
 is the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes in June
 in the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of the
 satellite era in 1966.  Prior to Cristina, the earliest second
 category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached
 that threshold on July 1.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/1500Z 16.6N 107.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 17.2N 108.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 17.9N 109.5W  115 KT 135 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  14/1200Z 19.2N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  15/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  16/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  17/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg