768 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 300239
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
  
 THE RAGGED EYE VISIBLE EARLIER HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY NEW CONVECTION
 NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH EXCELLENT BANDING ALOFT IS APPARENT IN
 AN AMSU PASS AT 0045 UTC.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A
 BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...A
 CIMSS ADT OF 65 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 66 KT.  THE
 MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS NOT CONCLUSIVE BUT SUGGESTS A SMALL
 DISLOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER CENTERS...IN LINE WITH THE
 MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  ALL OF THE
 OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL...INDICATE A
 LITTLE MORE STRENGTHING WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 27C WATERS...AND
 THIS GUIDANCE IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A MORE STABLE
 ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD...HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD
 RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN A DAY OR SO.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  BORIS IS SOUTH OF A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD
 STEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT THERE IS
 CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE GFDL AND GFS
 SOLUTIONS SHOW BORIS TURNING BACK EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
 LARGE CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...WHILE THE
 ECMWF AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SUPPORT A WESTWARD
 TRACK FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  I NOTE THAT THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO
 SLOW WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION...AND MAY BE OVERDOING THE
 INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS...AND IN PARTICULAR TO THE UKMET.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 14.8N 118.3W    60 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.8N 119.5W    65 KT
  24HR VT     01/0000Z 14.8N 120.9W    60 KT
  36HR VT     01/1200Z 14.7N 122.3W    55 KT
  48HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 123.5W    50 KT
  72HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     05/0000Z 14.0N 128.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN