062 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 252042
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014
 
 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Amanda
 likely peaked in intensity around 1200 UTC this morning and has
 started weakening since then. The CDO feature has decreased in size
 and become more ragged looking during the past few hours, and the
 small eye is becoming less distinct and cloud-filled in visible
 imagery. A 1459 UTC SSMI/S microwave image revealed that Amanda
 possessed a pinhole eye, which usually means that an eyewall
 replacement cycle is not far behind. The initial intensity has been
 decreased to 130 kt based on a blend of final T-numbers from TAFB
 and SAB ranging from T5.5/102 kt to T6.5/127 kt. Although UW-CIMSS
 ADT estimates remain at T6.9/137 kt, the raw values have dropped to
 T6.1/117 kt, which further supports lowering the initial intensity.
 
 Amanda is now moving northward to north-northwestward or 350/04 kt.
 The hurricane is forecast to maintain this general motion for the
 next 3 days or so as the cyclone remains embedded in southerly
 steering flow between a broad deep-layer trough to its west and a
 weak mid-level ridge to its east. After that time, Amanda is
 forecast to weaken fairly significantly and become a shallow cyclone
 that could briefly stall before turning westward or southwestward
 when it comes under the influence of a large low-level subtropical
 ridge to its north. The model guidance suite has shifted westward
 this cycle, including the consensus model TVCE. However, the latter
 model is biased by a more westerly track of the UKMET model that
 initialized a very weak cyclone instead of a more robust category 4
 hurricane. Therefore, the official track forecast remains similar to
 the previous track and lies to right of TVCE, near the eastern
 portion of the guidance envelope and closer to the ECMWF model.
 
 Cold upwelling and occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air should
 slowly erode the inner-core convection over the next 24 hours or so.
 An eyewall replacement cycle is also possible, which would act to
 hasten the weakening process. By day 2 and beyond, the combination
 of cooler water, drier air, and increasing southerly vertical wind
 shear should induce more rapid weakening, and Amanda is forecast to
 degenerate into a non-convective remnant low by day 5. The NHC
 intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
 intensity consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/2100Z 12.3N 111.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 12.8N 111.4W  115 KT 135 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 13.6N 111.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  27/1800Z 15.6N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  28/1800Z 17.1N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  30/1800Z 18.4N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart