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WTPA44 PHFO 020255
TCDCP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUILLERMO HAS REMAINED RAGGED THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A HINT OF A PARTIAL EYE BRIEFLY APPEARING THIS MORNING.
A 0001 UTC SSMI PASS WAS PARTICULARLY HELPFUL DETERMINING THE
CENTER POSITION FOR THIS ADVISORY. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND HFO BOTH CAME IN AT 5.0/90 KT...WHILE CIMSS
ADT SUGGESTED 85 KT. SINCE LITTLE CHANGE IS OBSERVED IN THE OUTFLOW
AND CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY COLD...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 10 KT. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE REMAINS A DEEP RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GUILLERMO...THOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS BREAK IN THE
RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...
A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS GUILLERMO MAKES A SUBTLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE RATHER TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS BRINGS GUILLERMO IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AS GUILLERMO HEADS
INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT...THE OUTFLOW SHOULD BECOME
DISRUPTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND EVENTUALLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON DAY THREE AND BEYOND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS IVCN WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN
WEAKENING AS COMPARED WITH SHIPS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...
GUILLERMO WILL BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS TOO
CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF GUILLERMO. WITH AN AVERAGE
96 HOUR TRACK ERROR OF JUST OVER 200 STATUTE MILES AND A 120 HOUR
FORECAST ERROR OF NEARLY STATUTE 300 MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON
TO DETERMINE WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
U.S. AIR FORCE ARE SCHEDULED TO BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS INTO
GUILLERMO ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL
CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION ON ITS TRANSIT TO HAWAII ON
SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 14.0N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.5N 142.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.1N 145.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 16.8N 147.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 18.5N 150.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.3N 153.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 22.2N 157.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER WROE
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