279 
 WTPA45 PHFO 212054
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
 1100 AM HST MON SEP 21 2015
  
 THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE MORNING SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL 
 CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE WEST OF A PERSISTENT AREA
 OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS MALIA CONTINUES TO BE
 IMPACTED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT
 ACCORDING TO SHIPS AND THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK CURRENT
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL
 AS CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 MALIA IS TURNING TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...AND THE INITIAL 
 MOTION IS SET AT NORTH AT 14 KT. THIS STEERING FLOW IS BEING 
 PRODUCED BY A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG 173E AND 
 A DEEP RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. MALIA WILL MAKE A GRADUAL TURN 
 TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE FORWARD SPEED 
 OF THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
 INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE AND RUNS ALONG A RELATIVELY TIGHTLY
 CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE GFEX
 THROUGH 48 HOURS. GUIDANCE DIVERGES THEREAFTER WHEN MALIA IS
 FORECAST TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
 
 SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH
 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. GIVEN THE EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
 THIS MORNING AND THE EXPECTATION THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
 HOLD...THE STRENGTHENING TREND WAS SCALED BACK SLIGHTLY...AND THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
 THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WAS ALSO
 SPED UP SINCE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF MALIA
 DISSIPATING ABOVE 850 MB...ROUGHLY 5000 FT...BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 48
 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE FORECAST WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN
 PREDICTION CENTER.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
 PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE 
 SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD... 
 WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED LATER TODAY.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/2100Z 27.0N 171.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 28.5N 171.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 31.0N 172.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 34.8N 174.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  23/1800Z 39.6N 179.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  24/1800Z 45.5N 175.0E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  25/1800Z 52.0N 172.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE