006 
 WTPA41 PHFO 232056
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
 1100 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2015
 
 THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF KILO HAS IMPROVED A BIT OVER THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A CREW FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
 SQUADRON WENT INTO KILO THIS MORNING AND FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS
 WERE WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
 QUADRANT INDICATING THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT STRETCHED OUT. THE
 LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 FROM
 BOTH PHFO AND JTWC AND UP TO 2.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS WE HAVE
 KEPT THE INTENSITY OF KILO AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
 
 KILO CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
 CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 EXTENDS WEST FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 165W. THE GLOBAL MODELS
 FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A
 RESULT KILO WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING WHICH
 WOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
 A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THEN
 TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTH NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS IS DUE TO A
 DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS DOWN NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS. THE SHARPNESS OF THE RE-CURVATURE IN THE LONGER TIME RANGE
 APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. BY
 DAY 5...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS AN ANTICYCLONE
 BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO
 THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH GFDL AND
 GEMI.
 
 KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR ARE 7 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS
 ANALYSIS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
 NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST
 TRACK. THEREFORE...ASSUMING KILO CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...SLOW
 INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY. THIS IS MOST IN LINE WITH
 SHIPS GUIDANCE SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR TO
 PREDICT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM BY DAYS 4-5. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
 INCREASE THE LONG TERM INTENSITY GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITIONS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL SINCE
 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST OF IT MONDAY 
 NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN 
 ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA 
 NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER 
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/2100Z 14.5N 164.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 14.9N 166.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/1800Z 15.6N 166.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  25/0600Z 16.4N 167.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  25/1800Z 17.1N 167.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  26/1800Z 18.6N 166.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  27/1800Z 19.9N 166.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  28/1800Z 20.7N 167.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE