564 
 WTNT45 KNHC 040900
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005
  
 MANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITH STAN OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR
 FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS... AND THE CENTER FIXES INDICATE STAN HAS BEEN MOVING
 PERSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OR 235/10.  THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ANY
 OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING... AND THERE DOES NOT NOW
 APPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THIS MOTION WILL NOT CONTINUE. 
 UNLESS STAN SLOWS DOWN OR CHANGES DIRECTION VERY SOON... IT WILL
 CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS
 MORNING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CENTER TO
 BE ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS... AND TO CONTINUE INLAND INTO THE
 MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN LESS
 THAN 36 HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH STAN WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING FASTER
 THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ONCE IT IS INLAND... IT COULD STILL
 PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
 COMPLEX TERRAIN.
 
 HOW STRONG STAN HAS BECOME THIS MORNING IS A BIT SPECULATIVE... BUT
 MOST OF THE AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT
 AND MAKING STAN A HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING
 THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT... AND AS I TYPE WAS JUST MEASURED AT 979 MB.
 FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE AND
 ARE VERY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING 65 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT
 RADAR DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING THAT ALMOST CLASSIFIES AS
 AN EYEWALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME VERY
 IMPRESSIVE... WITH AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING
 THE NIGHT AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -90C. DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 65 KT. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
 STAN INLAND AT 12 HOURS WITH A 65 KT INTENSITY... IT COULD BE
 STRONGER AT LANDFALL. PREPARATIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
 WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
  
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 18.8N  94.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 18.4N  95.4W    65 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.2N  96.2W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
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