642 
 WTNT44 KNHC 051700
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 1 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
 ...CORRECT TO SHOW INLAND AT 120HR ONLY...
 THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REPORT THE RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  A SPECIAL DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND DATA T-NUMBERS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF
 ABOUT 100 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THIS
 ESTIMATE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
 LIKELY BUT WE SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELLING OFF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
 OR TWO TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTIES.
 
 NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/1700Z 10.1N  46.6W   100 KT
  12HR VT     06/0000Z 10.6N  48.7W   110 KT
  24HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  52.3W   115 KT
  36HR VT     07/0000Z 12.4N  55.9W   120 KT
  48HR VT     07/1200Z 13.3N  59.4W   120 KT
  72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  65.5W   120 KT
  96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N  71.0W   120 KT
 120HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W    70 KT...INLAND
  
  
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