564 
 WTNT44 KNHC 161450
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007
  
 DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
 CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
 CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
 HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
 OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
 DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
 CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD
 FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
 CARIBBEAN SEA.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
 THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
 NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
 DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
 ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL.  IT IS
 STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
 EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
 MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
 SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
 DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.
  
 ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
 DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
 WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
 HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
 A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
 SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
 IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
  
 THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
 FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 13.7N  54.3W    80 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.1N  57.4W    90 KT
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.6N  61.4W    95 KT
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.1N  64.9W   100 KT
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.6N  68.4W   105 KT
  72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  75.5W   110 KT
  96HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W   120 KT
 120HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W    80 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE