569 
 WTNT43 KNHC 121519
 TCDAT3
 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
  
 RECENT DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITES...AND RADARS
 FROM CUBA INDICATE CHARLEY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS
 STRENGTHENED. THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 983 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS WERE 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT 700 MB. BASED ON THIS
 INFORMATION AND EARLIER RECON WIND REPORTS INDICATING NEAR 80 KT
 SURFACE WINDS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND IS
 IMPROVING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/15. CHARLEY REMAINS BASICALLY ON THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
 HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE...THE CONSENSUS OF
 THE MODELS REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NOAA 
 GULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS
 INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
 SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ERODING
 EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CHARLEY TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TURN NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING
 WHEN THE HURRICANE IS NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...CHARLEY
 WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
 HURRICANE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY
 SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
 
 THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF CHARLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY
 FROM THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS LESSENING THE SHEAR. SINCE THE
 CENTRAL CORE DEEP CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...AND THERE
 IS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARMER WATER AHEAD...CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 INTENSIFY AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
 IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA. AFTER PASSING OVER CUBA...THE INTENSITY
 MAY DROP SLIGHTLY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ALMOST UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
 THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT CHARLEY COULD BE NEAR MAJOR
 HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
 COAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MAKES LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
 SOUTHWARD WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 19.7N  81.2W    80 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 21.6N  82.4W    85 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 24.6N  83.1W    95 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  82.8W    95 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.2N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 40.5N  76.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 47.0N  66.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
  
  
 $$