678 
 WTNT41 KNHC 300246
 TCDAT1
 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BETA IS CURRENTLY
 INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DANGEROUS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0
 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ON THE UPWARD
 TREND. IT APPEARS THAT BETA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
 DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
 TO 90 KNOTS AND THERE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR BETA TO FURTHER
 INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA EARLY
 SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH
 TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
  
 THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN
 WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
 MODELS. NOW THAT BETA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST
 AT 4 TO 5 KNOTS...IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY
 TRAPPED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
 THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD
 MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
 CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
 AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
 DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  EVEN
 WHEN BETA MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A WEAKENING CYCLONE...IT COULD
 STILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
  
 SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET
 DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
 GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 13.7N  82.8W    90 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.5N  83.6W   100 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.7N  84.7W    60 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     31/1200Z 13.7N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.7N  87.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 14.0N  88.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  
  
  
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