694 
 FOPZ15 KNHC 240836
 PWSEP5
 HURRICANE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006               
 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34 16   3(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)   1(23)   X(23)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 205N 1153W 34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  12 205N 1153W 50 85   7(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
  12 205N 1153W 64 48  14(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
  
  24 213N 1166W 34 52  36(88)   2(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
  24 213N 1166W 50  8  50(58)   4(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
  24 213N 1166W 64  2  26(28)   5(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
  
  36 218N 1175W 34  9  53(62)  10(72)   3(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)
  36 218N 1175W 50  1  25(26)  12(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
  36 218N 1175W 64  X   8( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
  
  48 222N 1186W 34  2  23(25)  20(45)   7(52)   3(55)   1(56)   X(56)
  48 222N 1186W 50  X   5( 5)   9(14)   6(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
  48 222N 1186W 64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
  
  
  72 225N 1201W 34  1   6( 7)  10(17)   9(26)   6(32)   1(33)   1(34)
  72 225N 1201W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
  72 225N 1201W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  
  
  96 225N 1215W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   5(15)   1(16)   X(16)
  96 225N 1215W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  96 225N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
 120 225N 1230W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 120 225N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 120 225N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     90     85      65      55      40      20      20
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA