673 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 202044
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016
 
 Paine consists of a well-defined circulation of low-level clouds,
 as all of the deep convection dissipated around 10-11Z. The initial
 intensity has been set to 30 kt based on a blend of the latest
 Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Since it is
 unlikely that deep convection will return given the continued strong
 shear and a track over very cool waters, Paine will likely be
 declared a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  The remnant low will
 slowly spin down during the next day or so and should dissipate over
 the Baja California peninsula in 36 to 48 hours.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 005/13.  Paine's track should
 gradually bend northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it is
 steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
 States, and the shallow cyclone will lose some forward speed during
 that time.  The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
 one and is again close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
 expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
 peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
 next day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
 areas.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/2100Z 27.2N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  21/0600Z 28.6N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  21/1800Z 29.7N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  22/0600Z 30.9N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan