449 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 050855
 TCDEP4
 
 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014
 
 Norbert has changed little in organization during the past several
 hours.  The hurricane continues to have a large central dense
 overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C.  However, microwave data
 shows that the convection under the overcast is asymmetric and
 occurring mainly south of the center.  Subjective and objective
 Dvorak estimates are unchanged and the initial intensity remains
 80 kt.
 
 The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/7.  The cyclone is
 expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern
 portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next
 3 days or so. The track guidance for this part of the forecast has
 changed little since the last advisory, with all of the models
 and the official forecast keeping the center offshore of the Baja
 California peninsula.  However, as mentioned in the previous
 package, only a slight deviation to the right of the track would
 bring hurricane-force winds to the coast.  After 3 days, there
 continues to be a large spread in the guidance, with the GFS and
 NAVGEM calling for Norbert to recurve toward the northeast, while
 the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models forecasting it to stall west
 of the northern Baja California peninsula.  This part of the
 forecast again compromises between these extremes by showing a slow
 northward motion.
 
 Norbert should weaken during the forecast period as it moves over
 gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and interacts with
 land.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
 forecast in showing Norbert weakening to a tropical storm in about
 48 hours and degenerating to a remnant low by 96-120 hours.  The
 intensity forecast generally lies between the SHIPS model and the
 intensity consensus.
 
 Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
 advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
 northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
 result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
 areas during the next few days.  Please see information from your
 local weather office for more details.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0900Z 22.5N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 23.4N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  06/0600Z 24.4N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  06/1800Z 25.3N 114.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  07/0600Z 26.1N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  09/0600Z 28.5N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/0600Z 29.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven