131 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 172033
 TCDEP4
 
 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  12
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018
 
 A series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared
 imagery show that Lane's inner core continues to develop rapidly.
 The eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the
 lower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid
 inner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from
 TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the
 initial intensity to 95 kt.
 
 The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago,
 and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane
 intensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category
 4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable
 enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional
 and statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the
 NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN
 consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane
 should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly
 shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a
 blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times.
 
 The initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is
 forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward
 or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change
 was made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track
 adjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a
 compromise of the various consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/2100Z 11.5N 134.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts