344 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 110249
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004
  
 LO AND BEHOLD...AFTER REMAINING CONVECTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE
 DAY...ISIS REALIZED THAT SHE WAS STILL OVER WARM SSTS AND
 DECREASING VERTICAL SHEER....AND HAS SENT UP A NICE CONVECTIVE BOMB
 JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
 
 WITHOUT THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TSAB HAS NOT GIVEN THE
 SYSTEM A T NUMBER.  SAB AND KGWC BOTH GAVE THE SYSTEM A T1.5. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
 LATEST QUICK SCAT WHICH SHOWED 30 KTS. AGAIN...THE SHIPS MODEL
 WANTS TO RE-INTENSIFY ISIS AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECAST
 KEEPS THE SYSTEM INVARIANT OUT TO 120 HRS.  WITH THE RENEWED
 CONVECTION...I AM GOING TO FOLLOW THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND SEE IF
 THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM IS
 FORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR 72 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW THERE
 AFTER. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A
 DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A
 WESTERLY TRACK.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK
 VERY CLOSELY.
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0300Z 17.5N 118.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 120.1W    30 KT
  24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.9N 122.3W    30 KT
  36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W    30 KT
  48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 126.7W    30 KT
  72HR VT     14/0000Z 18.6N 131.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     15/0000Z 18.8N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$