754 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008
 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
  
 ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE HAS DISSIPATED AND
 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
 WITH SOME LEFTOVER MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS.  WITH VERTICAL SHEAR
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS
 THE CONVECTIONLESS CIRCULATION GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN.  IN
 FACT...ISELLE APPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW
 STATUS...PERHAPS LATER TODAY. 
  
 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW MOVING WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING
 RESULTING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 340/04.  A GRADUAL
 TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
 FEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE ENCOUNTER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
 OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TOWARD
 THE NORTH AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0900Z 18.7N 111.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N 111.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N 112.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     19/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
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